Hi everyone,
Well two years later the Caribbean 1500 bucket race starts from
So...the Crew Captain Jim McBrier, Captain Gilbert (Gil) Loesel, Jamie Taylor and our very own Sherry Burger from
Quite a bit of controversy today as the Carib 1500 has been put off almost a week to start tomorrow with a Hurricane in the lower Caribbean. Commanders has issued a seven day forecast that Steve Black is going with...we are going to route toward Bermuda just in case the Hurricane comes at us.....I am going to attach what Chrius Parker has to say tonight at 6pm. Chris is the weather service that I am using . Here it is....
Wx Update, Interim Tropical, Thu6, 6p
--First a housekeeping note: Some clients have departed the
1-2 days. Each vessel should assess the available information, and make the decision they believe is most-appropriate for their vessel.
Sometimes you'll agree with my recommendations - and sometimes you won't. That's as it should be. I hope I will NEVER criticize a vessel who fails to follow my advice - you make your own decisions, and you live with them. You pay me - I work for you. I'm here, and I'm available to all clients, and I look forward to talking with you...Chris.
--Now...TS Paloma, 4p:
16.3N/81.8W, moving 005T@7k, wind 55k, gusting 65k, pressure 994mb.
--During past 12hr/previous 12hr, Paloma moved 1.2/1.1 deg N Lat; 0.4 deg E/0.4 deg W Lon; wind increased 20k/10k; pressure fell 6mb/4mb.
--Paloma continues to strengthen, with a gradually-forming eye-like feature, and impressive banding & outflow, except in her SE-quadrant. A large cluster of deep parasitic convection persists NE of her center, 17.5N-21N from 79W-83W. It is possible this cluster of convection is beginning to wrap into the inner circulation...if this trend continues, and if other factors continue to be strongly-supportive, Paloma is likely to experience rapid intensification tomorrow into Sat8.
--Reliable Global models such as Euro, UKMet & NOGAPS continue to shear-apart Paloma, leaving her remnant low-level energy in the Caribbean somewhere from
GFS shears-apart Paloma over
--In spite of this, I continue to have high confidence (exactly as I described over the past day-or-two) that Tropical models will verify.
--Tropical models are very tightly-clustered, so I'll continue to prefer the GFDL solution. NOAA adjusted their timing/forward motion faster today, due to today's steadier, faster N-ward motion, and closer to GFDL timing...I agree, and I'll adjust my timing faster, though I was already faster, so I don't have to adjust as much. NOAA adjusted East (RIGHT) for track thru weekend, due to today's due-N motion & repositioning of the center. I agree...but all Tropical models lie LEFT of NOAA, so I'll stick a bit LEFT.
--My Forecast:
Fri7: 17.7N/81.6W, 75k Cat1 Hurricane
Sat8: 20N/81W, 100k Cat3 Hurricane
Sun9: 22.5N/77.5W, 70k Cat1 Hurricane
Mon10: 25N/73.8W, 65k Cat1 Hurricane
Tue11: 28N/69W, 60k strong TropicalStorm
Wed12: 31N/64W, 50k TropicalStorm or extra-TropicalStorm --Risks & recommendations all unchanged from this morning.
--Yes, I'm aware shear will be very high (30-50k) from Sat7 onward, and shear usually results in rapid weakening of a Tropical LO. However, I can cite many examples where, initially, a well-developed Tropical LO maintains intensity or even strengthens as shear increases (due to increased upper-divergence), and until extra-Tropical transition is complete. Forecasters are often "surprised" by this...my surprise is that forecasters fail to consider this.
With severe weather, my forecast philosophy is a bit different...I try to forecast the "worst likely scenario", rather than the "most likely scenario". In other words, I try to anticipate the worst conditions you're likely to experience - not the most-likely conditions.
For Paloma...I think we'll have a well-formed Tropical LO, unless the circulation is weakened structurally over Cuba (which is possible)...sea surface temps are supportive to 26N (into Mon10)...and I think Paloma's intensity could be a bit more or well-less than my forecast above...and you should be prepared (and not surprised) if it is a bit stronger or quite a bit weaker.
Today was also eventful.....could not pump out the holding tank......pump that was installed by a person who will remain unknown, told me it was working and had been fixed. $200 later, new pump and five hours.....Captain Jim pumped out the crapper. Mewanwhile the light in the bathroom gave up....Gid headed over to West Marine found the new pump and light and returned to help get all the work done. That was today......
Tonight we had a weather briefing, spent one hour preparing the ditch bag together as a crew and put it where it goes.......looking forward to seeing it by the mast when we get to Tortolla.
A little dinner, talked to Jane and David and am getting ready to call it a night in
